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This essay cautions that, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world has become more disorderly and less predictable than during the cold war. Drawing on twentieth-century lessons it warns the United States about the twin dangers of diplomatic disengagement from international affairs and drastic, thoughtless reductions in our military forces. It also comments on recent defense budget reductions as set forth by the Pentagon and President George Bush in his 1992 State of the Union address.